will be hit by regular flooding<\/a>. By the end of the century, large parts of the city will be under water.<\/p>\nYet demographics, like the sea, are also changing. Researchers led by R. Kyle Saunders, a sociologist at Florida State University, predict massive shifts in who lives on the coast by the end of the century. They have found that from California to Florida, coastal communities will have more seniors and more people of color, and often majority Latino populations. While plenty of people come and go, immigration and population growth drive the trends. It means that as the sea gradually and relentlessly rises, eroding cliffs and flooding and undermining property, more of the people in harm\u2019s way will be from marginalized groups that potentially lack the resources to do something about it.<\/p>\n
\u201cSea level rise is expected to impact these areas and these groups, but it\u2019s more than just affecting currently vulnerable populations,\u201d says Saunders. \u201cWe\u2019re also arguing that sea level rise could be a new emerging form of inequality in the country.\u201d Saunders\u2019s study is based on an analysis of demographic trends in 437 coastal communities and will soon be submitted for peer review.<\/p>\n
Officials in Imperial Beach are doing what they can to prepare for the nearly two meters of sea level rise that may afflict the city by the year 2100. But \u201cnobody has the resources to deal with this at all,\u201d says Mayor Serge Dedina. \u201cWe\u2019re still a working-class-majority community.\u201d<\/p>\n
Imperial Beach has been considering a range options as officials update the city\u2019s plans for adapting to rising seas, including building sea walls, replenishing beaches, and \u201cmanaged retreat\u201d\u2014a plan to gradually move infrastructure and homes, and help finance people\u2019s relocations to safer places.<\/p>\n
Madeline Cavalieri, a program manager at the California Coastal Commission, advocates for the approach. \u201cWe know that many places over the next century will likely become uninhabitable,\u201d she says. \u201cManaged retreat strategies include this idea of refocusing new development in safe places that aren\u2019t going to be vulnerable over their lifetime.\u201d<\/p>\n
Managed retreat offers a way out by cutting one\u2019s losses at the most vulnerable places rather than spending increasingly large sums in possibly futile attempts to hold the line. But Dedina\u2019s brief support for the controversial idea was met with a deluge of complaints. Some residents feared they\u2019d be forced from their homes or that their property values would fall, so the proposal was scrapped. In nearby Del Mar, California, where median house prices are two and a half times higher than in Imperial Beach, officials never considered retreating as part of their plan, and the Coastal Commission might reject the plan for that reason. A city needs the commission\u2019s approval for an adaptation plan to be adopted and to shape future development.<\/p>\n
Residents of coastal California are aware of the problems posed by sea level rise, says Charles Colgan, an environmental policy expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey in California. But for now the threat still seems abstract and far off. \u201cIt takes three or four floods for people to say, okay, buy me out, I\u2019m gone,\u201d he says, adding that even though California hasn\u2019t experienced that level of flooding yet, it\u2019s coming and will be within the homeownership period of many of the people opposing managed retreat now.<\/p>\n
Like people living in hurricane-prone Miami, Florida, or wildfire areas like Paradise, California, residents of soon-to-be submerged coastal areas like Imperial Beach will be faced with a choice: move out or face the growing risk of losing property. In all of these places, the costs of staying and rebuilding will rise. \u201cAs the hazard and damages increase because of climate change and because we keep putting more property in harm\u2019s way, the price of [restoration] goes up,\u201d Colgan says. \u201cEventually there\u2019s not going to be enough money and that\u2019s when people are going to wake up.\u201d<\/p>\n
When the time comes, those with the means will leave. But if retreat is strictly voluntary, not everyone may be able to make that same choice, especially when poorer coastal communities don\u2019t have support for retreating<\/a>.<\/p>\nDedina says state and federal governments need to spend more time and effort working closely with communities to address the problem. \u201cIt shouldn\u2019t just be the survival of the strongest, or the wealthiest.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
With its scenic views, relaxing sea breeze, laid-back atmosphere, and strong surf, Imperial Beach, California, draws visitors every day of the year. But the city, sandwiched between San Diego and the Mexican border, is on the front lines of sea <\/p>\n
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